Assessing and Forecasting the Competitiveness of Indonesian Downstream Coffee Industry
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7160/aol.2026.180110How to Cite
Abstract
This study aims to identify the factors influencing the competitiveness of the Indonesian downstream coffee industry and provide a forecast through 2030. This study uses Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, based on the Porter Diamond model, to identify the position and determinants of competitiveness in Indonesia’s downstream coffee industry. In developing the forecasting model, this study employs three approaches: ARIMA, HP-Filter, and ARDL forecasting, utilising data from 1990 to 2023. The study indicates that Indonesia's downstream coffee industry has comparative advantages, as reflected in the continuous increase of RSCA values over the past two decades. The Porter Diamond model shows that GDP, manufacturing value-added, and foreign direct investment are key drivers of competitiveness. Coffee prices negatively affect both the short and long term, while domestic consumption negatively affects competitiveness only in the short term. Land area, however, does not show a significant effect. The forecasting results show that the competitiveness of the downstream coffee industry in Indonesia is projected to experience continued growth from 2024 to 2030.References
Ashardiono, F. and Trihartono, A. (2024) "Optimizing the potential of Indonesian coffee: a dual market approach", Cogent Social Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1. E-ISSN 2331-1886. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2024.2340206
Balassa, B. (1965) "Trade Liberalisation and “Revealed” Comparative Advantage", The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 99-123. ISSN 0025-2034. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1970) "Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control", San Francisco: Holden Day
Chikán, A., Czakó, E., Kiss-Dobronyi, B and Losonci, D. (2022) "Firm competitiveness: A general model and a manufacturing application", International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 243. E-ISSN 1873-7579, ISSN 0925-5273. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2021.108316
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981) "Time Series With a Unit Root", Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, p. 1059. E-ISSN 1468-0262, ISSN 0012-9682.
Donovan, J., Blare, T. and Poole, N. (2017) "Stuck in a rut: emerging cocoa cooperatives in Peru and the factors that influence their performance", International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 169-184. ISSN 1473-5903. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2017.1286831
Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (2012) "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation", Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276. E-ISSN 1468-0262, ISSN 0012-9682. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Fambeu, A. H. and Yomi, P. T. (2025) "Does Domestic Concentration Cancel the Potentially Beneficial Effect of International Competition on Firm Productivity? Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Cameroon", Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Vol. 16, pp. 14818-14841. E-ISSN 1868-7873. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02388-9
Gardner, T. A., Benzie, M., Börner, J., Dawkins, E., Fick, S., Garrett, R., Godar, J., Grimard, A., Lake, S., Larsen, R. K., Mardas, N., McFermott, C. L., Meyfroidt, P., Osbeck, M., Persson, M., Sembres, T., Suavet, C., Strassburg, B., Trevisan, A., West, C., Wolvekamp, P. (2019) "Transparency and sustainability in global commodity supply chains", World Development, Vol. 121, pp. 163-177. E-ISSN 1873-5991. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.025
Glasbergen, P. (2018) "Smallholders do not Eat Certificates", Ecological Economics, Vol. 147 (Feb.), pp. 243-252. E-ISSN 1873-6106, ISSN 0921-8009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.023
Hoffman, J. (2014) "The world atlas of coffee: from beans to brewing--coffees explored, explained and enjoyed", Buffalo, New York: Firefly Books. ISBN 978-1770854703.
Hotsawadi, H. and Gea, I.V. (2024) "Measuring the Competitiveness and Efficiency of Indonesian Non-Oil and Gas Exports to Non-Traditional Markets", Jurnal Hubungan Luar Negeri, Vol. 9, No. 2. E-ISSN 3047-9770. DOI: https://doi.org/10.70836/jh.v9i2.58
Huo, D. (2014) "Impact of country-level factors on export competitiveness of agriculture industry from emerging markets", Competitiveness Review, Vol. 24, No. 5, pp. 393-413. E-ISSN 2051-3143, ISSN 1059-5422. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/CR-01-2012-0002
ICO (2022) "World Coffee Statistics Report 2022", International Coffee Organization. [Online]. Available: https://ico.org/what-we-do/world-coffee-statistics-database/ [Accessed: Nov. 3, 2024].
Innayatuhibbah, G. A., Rahayu, E. S. and Ferichani, M. (2024) "Export competitiveness of Indonesian coffee in the United States market", Scientific Horizons, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 125-135. E-ISSN 2709-8877, ISSN 2663-2144. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor2.2024.125
Jalata, D. H. (2021) "Competitiveness and Determinants of Coffee Export in Ethiopia: An Analysis of Revealed Comparative Advantage and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model", Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Vol. 12, No. 5, pp. 43-62. E-ISSN 2222-2855. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7176/jesd/12-5-05
Kementerian Pertanian (2023) "Statistik Perkembunan Unggulan Nasional 2021-2023". [Online]. Available: https://repository.pertanian.go.id/handle/123456789/20225 [Accessed: Nov. 3, 2024]. (In Indonesian).
Li, E., Chen, Y., Hu, G. and Lu, M.(2022) "Competition between Export Cities in China: Evolution and Influencing Factors", Land, Vol. 11, No. 2. ISSN 2073-445X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land11020201
Long, Y. (2021) "Export competitiveness of agricultural products and agricultural sustainability in China", Regional Sustainability, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 203-210. ISSN 2666-660X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2021.09.001
Manalu, D. S. T. , Harianto, Suhamo and Hartoyo, S. (2019) "Comparative Analysis of Indonesian and Vietnamese Coffees Competitiveness in the World Market", International Journal of Progressive Sciences and Technologies (IJPSAT), Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 141-146. ISSN 2509-0119.
Nasution, S. P., Wibowo, R. P., Supriana, T. and Iskandarini (2024a) "Analysis Competition Coffee Exports from Producing Countries in the United States Market with Use Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) Model", Journal of Ecohumanism, Vol. 3, No. 8, pp. 2096-2101. E-ISSN 2752-6801, ISSN 2752-6798 DOI: https://doi.org/10.62754/joe.v3i8.4890
Nasution, S. P., Wibowo, R. P., Supriana, T. and Iskandarini (2024b) "Analysis of Indonesia coffee exports competitiveness in the United States and Japan to promote sustainable market", IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 1302, No. 1. ISSN 1755-1315. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1302/1/012137
Pascucci, F. (2018) "The export competitiveness of Italian coffee roasting industry", British Food Journal, Vol. 120, No. 7, pp. 1529-1546. E-ISSN 1758-4108. ISSN 0007-070X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-05-2017-0306
Porter, M. E. (1991) "Toward a Dynamic Theory of Strategy", Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 12, pp. 95-117. E-ISSN 1097-0266. ISSN 0143-2095.
Purwawangsa, H., Irfany, M. I. and Haq, D. A. (2024) "Indonesian Coffee Exports´ Competitiveness and Determinants", Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 59-71. E-ISSN 2407-2524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.21.1.59
Rahardjo, B., Akbar, B. M. B., Iskandar, Y. and Shalehah, A. (2020) "Analysis and strategy for improving Indonesian coffee competitiveness in the international market", BISMA (Bisnis dan Manajemen), Vol. 12, No. 2, p. 154. ISSN 2549-7790. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26740/bisma.v12n2.p154-167
Rosiana, N., Nurmalina, R., Winandi, R. and Rifin, A. (2018) "Dynamics of Indonesian Robusta Coffee Competition Among Major Competitor Countries Dinamika Persaingan Kopi Robusta Indonesia Dengan Negara-Negara Pesaing Utama", Jurnal Tanaman Industri dan Penyegar, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-10. ISSN 2356-1297. (In Indonesian).
Sachs, J. D., Cordes, K., Rising, J., Toledano, P. and Maennling, N. (2019) "Ensuring Economic Viability and Sustainability of Coffee Production", Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660936
Simionescu, M., Pelinescu, E., Khouri, S. and Bilan, S. (2021) "The main drivers of competitiveness in the EU-28 countries", Journal of Competitiveness, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 129-145. ISSN 1804-1728. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2021.01.08
Skare, M. and Cvek, D. (2020) "A vector autoregression analysis of foreign direct investment and its link to competitiveness", Journal of Competitiveness, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 127-142. ISSN 1804-1728. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2020.04.08
Sunarharum, W.B., Ali, D. Y., Nugroho, P. I., Asih, N. E., Mahardika, A. P. and Geofani, I. (2021) "The Indonesian coffee consumers perception on coffee quality and the effect on consumption behavior", IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 733, No. 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/733/1/012093
Suroso, A.I., Fahmi, I., Tandra, H. and Haryono, A. (2023) "Assessing the Effect of Internet Indicators on Agri-Food", Economies, Vol. 11, No. 10, pp. 1-17. E-ISSN 2227-7099. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100246
Suryana, A.T., Saleh, Y., Dewi, T. G. and Rahayu, H. S. P. (2024) "Global competitiveness of coffee Products: A comparative study of Indonesia and Vietnam", Coffee Science, p. e192237, pp. 1-11. E-ISSN 1984-3909. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25186/.v19i.2237
Suzianti, A., Kaniaswari, R., Fathia, S. N., Amaradhanny, R. D., Muslim, E. and Alfian, E. T. (2024) "Towards a sustainable coffee supply chain: the role of digital platform capability in increasing organisational agility", International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 80-97. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19397038.2024.2400987
Tampubolon, J., Ginting, A., Nainggolan, H. L. and Tarigan, J. R. (2023) "Indonesian Coffee Development Path: Production and International Trade", Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, Vol. 41, No. 12, pp. 316-328. ISSN 2320-7027. DOI: https://doi.org/10.9734/ajaees/2023/v41i122335
Tandra, H., Suroso, A. I., Syaukat, Y. and Najib, M. (2022) "The Determinants of Competitiveness in Global Palm Oil Trade", Economies, Vol. 10, No. 6, pp. 1-20. ISSN 2227-7099. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10060132
Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995) "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes", Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 66, pp. 225-250. E-ISSN 1872-6895, ISSN 0304-4076. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
Tsai, P. H., Chen, C. J. and Yang, H. C. (2021) "Using Porter"s Diamond Model to Assess the Competitiveness of Taiwan"s Solar Photovoltaic Industry", SAGE Open, Vol. 11, No. 1. E-ISSN 2158-2440, ISSN 2158-2440. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244020988286
Wang, G., Wang, Y., Li, S., Yi, Y., Li, C. and Shin, C. (2024) "Sustainability in Global Agri-Food Supply Chains: Insights from a Comprehensive Literature Review and the ABCDE Framework", Foods, Vol. 13, No. 18. E-ISSN 2304-8158. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13182914
Wang, L., Sun, T.-L. and Cai, Z.-Q. (2022) "Dynamics of Chinese Export Comparative Advantage: Analysis Based on RSCA Index", Journal of Mathematics. E-ISSN 2314-4785, ISSN 314-4629. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2566259
Widyantini, R. (2019) "Analysis of The Competitiveness of Indonesian Coffee in The Export Market", Cendekia Niaga, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 14-23. E-ISSN 2548-3145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52391/jcn.v3i1.458
Willer, D. F. and Aldridge, D. C. (2023) "Enhancing domestic consumption to deliver food security in a volatile world", Global Sustainability, Vol. 6, pp. 2022-2024. E-ISSN 2059-4798. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.17
Wooldridge, J. M. (2004) "Introductory Econometrics - A Modern Approach", 2nd ed., OH, USA: South-western College Pub: Cincinnati. ISBN 13 978-0-324-66054-8.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013) "Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach", 5th ed., Tolerance Analysis of Electronic Circuits Using MATHCAD. South Western Cengage Learning. ISBN 13 978-1-111-53104-1.
Yadav, A. K. and Chattopadhyay, U. (2024) "Identifying the Factors of Export Competitiveness for Agricultural Products", Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, Vol. 42, No. 6, pp. 241-253. DOI: https://doi.org/10.9734/ajaees/2024/v42i62485
Yu, Z., Feng, G., Liu, H., Peng, H. and Dong, X. (2024) "Sustainable market? The impact of downstream market concentration on high-quality agricultural development: evidence from China"s dairy industry", Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8 Sept. ISSN 2571581X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1453115
