Agriculture Drought Risk Management Using Standardized Precipitation Index and AEZ Model

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the drought risk management in the region under study. The SPI method was adopted for drought monitoring in Hamadan Province, Iran. The temporal and spatial extent of the area vulnerable to drought was delineated using AEZ model, GIS and other softwares. Five zones were recognized based on the drought severity index. Selection of compatible crops with respect to climate and land production capability of a region specially in drought condition is one of the effective elements to increase the water productivity in agriculture, based on Agro-ecological Zoning(AEZ) model, developed by FAO, suitable spatial extension of wheat cultivation, which is the main crop in Hamadan Province, were delineated. According to this study the most suitable lands potentially available for wheat production are located in the north-east region and a part of the central region, where as, least suitable ones can be observed in the north-east and the south – east regions. The results of the risk analysis study show that south-east, north and central regions are susceptible to longest duration intense droughts where as long duration droughts are intensive in north, west and south-east regions. The overlaid and integrated maps of risks with the maps obtained after applying the AEZ model resulted into the map of spatial suitability of potential crop production for each class of risk (longest duration and most intensive durations). This enables the decision makers to define spatial priority of crop cultivation and manage various potential regions susceptible to drought risks.